A survey of bankers suggests India’s banks are set for robust non-food credit growth of about 11–13% in January–June 2026. Improving balance sheets and steady economic activity are expected to lift lending, with retail and SME segments driving most of the expansion. Industrial credit is projected to recover more gradually, while monetary policy is widely seen as likely to stay stable.
Analysts expect India’s bank credit to expand faster than deposits in FY27, with credit projected at 12–14% versus deposits at 10–12%. The outlook continues a pattern seen for more than a decade, raising liquidity management challenges. Revised liquidity norms could help, but falling CASA ratios remain a key risk to profitability.
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Indian bank credit growth is expected to ease to below 12 percent in the coming fiscal year as the West Asia conflict and shifting interest rate dynamics weigh on borrowing and repayment capacity. Icra cautions that small businesses and unsecured loan segments could see more defaults, prompting banks to tighten underwriting for vulnerable sectors.
RBI’s monetary policy measures, including ECLGS, helped revive lending momentum for MSMEs. Credit to industry rebounded to 6.5% in February 2022 from just 1.0% a year earlier, supported by stronger flows to micro and small businesses and improving conditions in large industry. The turnaround is credited to policy-linked credit interventions.
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