Forecasters warn a strong El Nino is likely in the second half of 2026, bringing hotter, drier conditions across Asia. The outlook raises risks for crops and food supplies, as farmers may struggle with fertilizer shortages and high fuel costs. India is bracing for below-average monsoon rains, Southeast Asia could see weaker palm oil and rice output, and China faces a higher flood risk.
Fertilizer prices are surging, hitting key agricultural economies as urea and phosphate become harder and costlier to source. Major exporters are curbing sales to manage shortages and earnings, while importing countries hunt for alternative supplies, raising the risk of a wider food crisis if the imbalance persists.
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India’s government is pushing alternatives to chemical fertilisers after a 24.6% drop in output and supply disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz crisis. The Centre is planning targeted action in high-use districts and aims to reduce chemical fertiliser usage by 25% by 2030, timed ahead of the kharif season and the food production cycle.
Indonesia’s shift to use palm oil for biofuels is set to challenge India’s food security, since India relies heavily on edible palm oil imports from Indonesia. With domestic production constrained by climate, India may have to scramble for alternative sourcing to avoid shortages and price spikes.
UN agencies warn that rising heatwaves are undermining global food systems as farmers and fishers face worsening conditions. Yields are dropping and harvests are failing more frequently, threatening supply and livelihoods. The agencies say the outlook will keep deteriorating unless climate change is urgently addressed.
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