Bank of Baroda economist Dipanwita Mazumdar says India’s current petrol and diesel pain is likely tied to how crude shocks historically play out. She notes crude prices have risen 39.7% during the current global crunch, and when crude surges sharply, the “high” typically lasts only 6–7 months. Looking back over 54 years, she found major crude jumps—over 20% in a year—occurred in 18 instances. The latest hikes, ending a four-year revision freeze, add urgency amid rising imports.
India’s crude oil stocks have fallen 15% since late February, according to Kpler, as imports ease amid the Iran conflict. While refinery run rates have held up, the gap is being covered by moderate inventory drawdowns from refinery storage and other stockpiles. Analysts warn this strategy can’t last if supply constraints continue, potentially forcing lower processing rates. The Strait of Hormuz is also near-closed, cutting Gulf output and tightening global supply heading into peak summer demand.
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