Market veteran Pashupati Advani says India’s rally may be fragile, pointing to unresolved risks like disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz that could affect oil and LNG imports. He also flags a near-term LPG crunch and growing pressure on IT jobs, citing visa curbs, AI disruption, and stagnant hiring—calling it a potential earnings shock.
Energy sector mutual funds have rallied nearly 12% over the past three months, outpacing other fund categories as global energy prices climb. Analysts say the move may be cyclical rather than guaranteed. They recommend existing investors book partial profits, while new investors consider SIP or STP to reduce entry-time risk.
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India’s markets defied a rough global backdrop, with the Nifty 50 ending 2025 near 26,000 for the 10th consecutive positive year. Fixed income strengthened too as yields fell. The rally is being linked to a broader economic and business upturn, creating cautious optimism for 2026, even as investor sentiment still lags behind the price action.
JPMorgan has downgraded Indian equities to Neutral from Overweight, warning that the Nifty could fall to 20,500 in a bear-case scenario, suggesting around 15% downside. The bank says the long-term outlook is intact, but near-term pressure could come from elevated valuations, Iran-related uncertainty, energy disruption risk, and emerging earnings concerns as FY27 estimates are cut.
After hitting a low of 12,514, the Sensex has tested the 12,800–12,000 support zone and then tried to bounce with a corrective rally. While the rebound attempt offers hope, analysts urge investors to wait for fresh signals before turning bullish, implying volatility remains a key risk until the market confirms a clearer trend.
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