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IMD forecasts normal monsoons nationwide but regional rainfall still swings wildly

IMD forecasts normal monsoons nationwide but regional rainfall still swings wildly

The IMD projects monsoon rainfall will hit about 100% of the Long Period Average for India, with a small model error margin. But the catch is regional: monsoon patterns have historically varied sharply across different parts of the country, meaning “normal” overall may not feel normal everywhere.

Summarised by Beize from a story on The Economic Times on 24 Apr 2026
Strong El Nino in 2026 threatens monsoons crops and prices from Asia to China

Strong El Nino in 2026 threatens monsoons crops and prices from Asia to China

Forecasters warn a strong El Nino is likely in the second half of 2026, bringing hotter, drier conditions across Asia. The outlook raises risks for crops and food supplies, as farmers may struggle with fertilizer shortages and high fuel costs. India is bracing for below-average monsoon rains, Southeast Asia could see weaker palm oil and rice output, and China faces a higher flood risk.

Summarised by Beize from a story on The Economic Times on 24 Apr 2026

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Extended monsoon delays could derail ONGC’s KG-98/2 bid and test BP partnership promise

Extended monsoon delays could derail ONGC’s KG-98/2 bid and test BP partnership promise

Bombay High is fading fast, and ONGC’s turnaround hinges on the KG-98/2 deepwater project. But an extended monsoon disrupted operations, raising the risk that the company’s multibillion-dollar plan—made even more urgent by falling profits and rising costs—could face further delays despite the BP partnership. The stakes are survival-level for ONGC’s next phase.

Summarised by Beize from a story on The Economic Times on 24 Apr 2026
IMD shifts monsoon forecasting toward dynamic models but statistics remain central

IMD shifts monsoon forecasting toward dynamic models but statistics remain central

India’s IMD will continue using statistical models for monsoon forecasts, but the Ministry of Earth Sciences is increasing its focus on dynamic modeling. The move signals a push to improve forecast realism and potentially accuracy, while keeping familiar statistical approaches in place during the monsoon season transition.

Summarised by Beize from a story on The Economic Times on 24 Apr 2026
RBI warns inflation could spike as Hormuz disruption and weather uncertainty collide

RBI warns inflation could spike as Hormuz disruption and weather uncertainty collide

The RBI’s latest “state of the economy” assessment flags rising upside risks to inflation, driven by potential disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz alongside domestic weather uncertainties. It warns that a prolonged West Asia conflict could create demand shocks and financial market stress, pushing up energy costs and disturbing trade flows—even as it notes India’s fundamentals remain broadly strong.

Summarised by Beize from a story on The Economic Times on 24 Apr 2026
El Nino set to reshape 2026 27 weather bringing drier Asia and wetter Americas

El Nino set to reshape 2026 27 weather bringing drier Asia and wetter Americas

Forecasters warn a strong El Nino may form in late 2026, shifting weather patterns worldwide. Much of Asia could see hotter, drier conditions, with India’s monsoon potentially running below average and Australia’s key eastern farming areas facing reduced rainfall. Meanwhile, parts of North and South America may get wetter weather, even as the climate event remains natural.

Summarised by Beize from a story on The Economic Times on 24 Apr 2026

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Monsoon forecasts use a hidden benchmark and markets react early

Monsoon forecasts use a hidden benchmark and markets react early

India’s monsoon outlook is benchmarked against the Long Period Average, but the story is messier than the acronym suggests. The IMD’s forecasting process, who sets the benchmark, and how consistent past forecasts have been all matter—especially since markets respond to April updates even though the monsoon season begins in June.

Summarised by Beize from a story on The Economic Times on 24 Apr 2026
India to buy urea fertilizer at nearly double pre war prices amid supply shock

India to buy urea fertilizer at nearly double pre war prices amid supply shock

India is set to purchase 2.5 million tons of urea fertilizer at rates nearly 90% higher than before the Middle East conflict, with global supplies tightening under geopolitical pressure. Indian Potash Ltd. will source the shipment just ahead of monsoon crop sowing, in a move aimed at preventing fertilizer shortages during the critical planting season.

Summarised by Beize from a story on The Economic Times on 24 Apr 2026
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