Brent crude eased to around $106.64 per barrel as OPEC+ signaled higher output of 188,000 barrels per day from June 2026. Yet India’s state-run oil marketing companies are still bleeding money, with estimated daily losses of about ₹1,000 crore as global prices stay high while domestic fuel rates remain frozen. Analysts warn a fuel hike could be next.
Oil and gas prices jumped today after reports of a US warship incident near the Strait of Hormuz. Brent and US WTI crude futures rose around 5%, while Dutch natural gas prices also climbed as LNG supply stayed trapped. Analysts now focus on supply disruption risks, OPEC+ output decisions, storage levels, and ongoing geopolitics to gauge whether the rally can continue or reverses.
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Oil prices edged lower on Monday, with crude dropping below $110 for the second straight session. Traders are weighing prospects around a U.S. push to free vessels stuck in the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran Washington tensions continue. With the key shipping route still largely blocked, the market is also watching OPEC+ output decisions, where any disruption could quickly lift prices.
The UAE’s unexpected departure from OPEC+ has rattled global energy markets, fueling fears that oil supply discipline is weakening. Peter McGuire calls it a “chink in the armor,” casting doubt on the alliance’s stability. For major importers like India, the risk is further crude price pressure as geopolitical tensions continue to complicate supply and demand.
UAE’s pullback from OPEC+ coordination is unlikely to meaningfully move oil in the near term, with geopolitical tensions expected to outweigh any supply signal. After recent market rallies, investors are warned that easy gains may be fading. With the Fed unlikely to pivot soon, earnings and Middle East risks are likely to steer sentiment, favoring select themes like AI capex plus select energy and healthcare.
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