India’s external outlook is deteriorating as dollar liquidity tightens, the rupee weakens, and trade gaps widen. Stable foreign investment is being replaced by more volatile flows, while the “quality” of capital improves less reliably than before. The result is a renewed balance of payments focus, with risks rising for currency stability and macro management.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said India’s trade deficit may narrow if services exports stay strong and remittances hold up. He pointed to a solid performance in July and August this year for services exports, suggesting improving external receipts. The RBI’s view links near-term trade balance trends to sustained momentum in services and inflows from overseas workers.
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