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Monsoon forecasts use a hidden benchmark and markets react early
Economy
Published on 24 April 2026
April forecasts can move stocks before rains start
India’s monsoon outlook is benchmarked against the Long Period Average, but the story is messier than the acronym suggests. The IMD’s forecasting process, who sets the benchmark, and how consistent past forecasts have been all matter—especially since markets respond to April updates even though the monsoon season begins in June.
- The Long Period Average (LPA) is the key yardstick for monsoon forecasts
- The forecast’s reliability depends on methods and historical performance
- Markets trade on April signals before the monsoon season starts in June
- Monsoon outcomes remain a major non-policy driver for India’s economy
Read the full story at The Economic Times
This summarization was done by Beige for a story published on 
The Economic Times